Nuclear arms ‘no longer deter’ in drone era
A former deputy secretary general of NATO has said that she does not currently see a risk of Russian launching a wider land war in Europe, as the country is “exhausted” from the war with Ukraine.
Rose Gottemoeller was speaking at the Law Society’s Centre for Justice and Law Reform Summer School at Blackhall Place (9 July).
The event brought together leading international figures in law, diplomacy, security and politics to examine whether the rules-based international order can survive an age of disruption.
Gottemoeller warned, however, that there was a “myriad” of threats below the level of outright war, for which countries needed to build resilience.
‘New season of warfare’
In her address, Gottemoeller discussed what she described as “a new season of warfare” arising from the war on Ukraine.
She told the event that threats of nuclear escalation from Russian president Vladimir Putin had failed to materialise, with Ukraine calling his bluff with its Operation Spiderweb drone attacks on nuclear bombers deep inside Russia last year.
Gottemoeller outlined her argument, made in a recent Foreign Affairs article, that nuclear weapons were no longer a deterrent against conventional attacks, and did not buy security from “a determined enemy”.
She added that nuclear deterrence would no longer be the answer to the proliferation of “cheap, smart, autonomous” drones and missiles that would be increasingly used by state and non-state actors.
‘Deterrence by denial’
Such threats, the security expert added, would require what she called “deterrence by denial”, rather than threats of nuclear retribution.
Gottemoeller also outlined a series of increased ‘hybrid’ threats – including cyber-attacks, attempts to interfere with elections, attacks on infrastructure such as undersea cables, and assassination attempts.
These, she said, could “burn into the fabric of society”.
She called for a ‘whole-of-society’ approach to dealing with such hybrids threats, as well as the development of integrated air and missile defence systems to deter conventional attacks.
Gottemoeller urged Ireland to consider its vulnerability to conventional missile and drone attacks and welcomed news of joint exercises on protecting undersea cables involving Ireland and Britain.