ESRI research published today finds that one-in-three renters, not in receipt of housing benefit, faced considerable affordability challenges prior to COVID-19.

However, in the COVID-19 period of mid-March to mid-June 2020, affordability pressures are not likely to have worsened, despite a greater fall in incomes experienced by renters, relative to homeowners.

Spending falls

This is because falls in spending (such as on childcare, transport and recreational activities) outweigh the decline in incomes during the lockdown which were supported by the Pandemic Unemployment Payment and Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme.

However, these are very short-term effects, the ESRI says.

Many renters face longer-term affordability pressures that are likely to worsen quickly, as necessary expenditure rebounds quicker than incomes.

As renters are more likely to work in sectors badly hit by the pandemic (such as accommodation and hospitability), this may pose longer-term employment challenges if these sectors are slow to recover. 

In terms of rental arrears, survey data suggest one-in-ten households missed payments prior to the pandemic and, given the affordability trends, this is unlikely to have risen substantially in the short term.

Incomes

ESRI author Rachel Slaymaker said: “The pandemic related unemployment crisis is concentrated in sectors of the economy (such as accommodation and food) whose employees are more likely to be renters than homeowners and as such renters have seen their incomes fall to a greater extent.

“This may further enhance affordability pressures if incomes are slow to rebound.

“Any tapering of the income supports will thus have a disproportionate effect on this group.”

ESRI research also finds that workers in many essential occupations are particularly vulnerable to severe illness from COVID-19.

This study identified those occupations with the highest vulnerability, due to workers’ underlying characteristics.

Deprived area

The study compares workers across three risk dimensions: COVID-19-vulnerable chronic illness rates (chronic heart disease, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes), older age, and living in a deprived area.

These three factors have been linked to worse health outcomes including more severe illness, hospitalisation, and mortality from COVID-19.

Author Dr Brendan Walsh said: “We find frontline occupations such as road transport drivers and care workers are particularly vulnerable, as are security guards, agricultural workers, process plant operators and those working in housekeeping and related services.”

Chronic illness

The study finds:

• Over 15% of workers have a COVID-19-vulnerable chronic illness. The highest rates of chronic illness are among housekeeping and related services (34%), road transport drivers (26%), and caring professions (e.g. care workers) (22%),
• agricultural workers (e.g. farmers), housekeeping and related services, and road transport drivers contain the largest share of workers aged 50 and older (63%, 53%, and 47% respectively),
• many essential workers in elementary occupations such as elementary cleaning (39%), security (30%) and process plant workers (25%) are more likely to live in deprived areas. Care workers, housekeeping and related services, and road transport drivers also disproportionately live in areas of high deprivation.

The ESRI believes that the State in conjunction with private sector industry should focus on designing and implementing innovative strategies to protect workers in occupations at highest risk of contracting COVID-19, and those occupations with workers most vulnerable to severe illness.